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Looking at the NBA's Western Conference 2008-09
By Clayton Ruley
 

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs always have a chance to win it all with forward/guard Manu Ginobili, guard Tony Parker and forward/center Tim Duncan but it will take a lot from those three to do it this year. Something seems missing from this team and it's some athleticism in the back and frontcourts. Besides the big three, the team only has rookie George Hill and veterans guards Ime Udoka and Michael Finley with the potential of slash and finish strong. In the frontcourt the big man are certainly more statue-esque than ballarinas and they aren't the types to out jump people.

This team needs to stay healthy and that has been a problem for Ginobili and Parker especially. Head coach and GM Gregg Popavich will do the best job one can do in this situation and he has the cooperation of his team but I can't see the team beating Houston out with the changes they've made. That includes grabbing forward Brett Barry off the Spurs roster to help with three-point shooting.

I see the team winning 55 games.

New Orleans Hornets

The New Orleans Hornets suprised the league last year as they ran the West into submission...almost. Towards the end of the season they gave up the Conference home court to the Lakers after leading all season. The team added forward James Posey from Boston during the off-season and the team now has a team that could compete a trip to the Western finals. Chris Paul is certainly a top five point guard in this league and the team needs him on the floor to win anything. Forward David West is an all-star player who rebounds and can score 20 as well. Center Tyson Chandler is a very good weak-side shot blocker but needs to defend centers like Yao and Bynum better one on one. Forward Peja Stokojovic is still a great shooter but needs to stay on the floor.

The team will miss guard Jannero Pargo, who left for big money overseas but guard Mike James is a champion and will help. Center Hilton Armstrong looks like a nice big man who should get more minutes. forwards Rasual Butler & Morris Peterson both have an outside touch and are long on defense to make team think a bit. Guard Devin Brown and forward Julian Wright have slashing games and can occasionally step outside and make a three-pointer. This team has a great mix of youth and veterans but do they have enough clutchness? I don't think so.

The team will 50 games and win a first round series.

Houston Rockets

Houston made the most significant move in the division acquiring forward Ron Artest from Sacramento without giving up anyone significant. Artest gives the team another defensive stopper and someone who can drop 20 points any night. Artest also has a drive to win and that will help a Houston team who has always competed in the West since center Yao Ming and guard Tracy McGrady teamed up but was missing a "dawg" on the team.

The Artest move allows forward Shane Battier (a high quality defender himself) to move to the bench and when the team play the high quality perimeter player of the league they have two players to matchup with them.

The point guard position has hurt the team the last few seasons and even when Rafer Alston played well, it was hurt by the fact that he got injured before the playoffs. Aaron Brooks, a second year guard should help that and has to start the season. Brooks is lightning quick and can stick the jumper. Forward/guard Brett Barry followed his brother Jon and father Rick to the Rockets and will add three-pointer shooting and championship experience to the squad. Forwards Luis Scola and Carl Landry will help at the power forward spot and Scola looks to be a primetime player. T-Mac and Yao need to stay healthy for this team to make a run to the NBA Finals.

It's a possibility but given these two players injury history it's questionable at this point. I see 60 wins.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas has plenty of talent but do they have the right mindset after losing the NBA Finals to Miami a couple of years back. New head coach Rick Carlisle will bring defense and an different offensive style to the team but can he get forward Dirk Nowitzki and company to play like they aren't walking in mud? Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards ever but can he be effective on a team that desperately needs to push the ball to be successful?

Forward Josh Howard needs to keep quiet off the court because it's affecting his play and respect on the court. Guard/Forward Jerry Stackhouse seems like he's on the way out the door. Jason Terry should be a guy off the bench but the team needs a true two-guard for them to make that push. Forward Brandon Bass and centers DaSagina Diop and Erick Dampier are serviceable but not the guys you want banging versus the West's big men because they don't make the competition defend them. Forward Devean George has a few rings but can he be effective enough for it to matter? Forward Antoine Wright can be a wildcard, providing a exciting frontcourt player that finishes other mistakes and scores in double figures occasionally.

I see this team winning 50 games but still not winning more than a round at best.

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is another team that has alot of young talent but lacks alot of veteran leadership and will lose games because of it. Guard/Forward Rudy Gay and rookie guard O.J. Mayo will be the primary focal points on offense and the team has two young points in Mike Conley, Jr and Kyle Lowry. One of those points may be trade bait in the future. Forward Hakim Warrick will get time at all three frontcourt positions and can do a little of everything.

Rookie forward Darrell Arthur won the national championship in college with Kansas last year and is the prototypical 6-9 player without a true home. He will get the chance to find it on this team. Marc Gasol is a rookie and is a center the team can work with for the future. Marc Iavaroni has veterans in forward Antoine Walker, guard Marko Jaric and guard Greg Buckner to help the cause and Walker has won a ring which can't be underestimated. This team will compete because it can run with anyone but will come up short alot because of experience in clutch situations.

I see them struggling for 40 wins and the team will get another lottery pick. If the team does well to start the season you may see them make a trade. If they don't you may see them do the same.

Northwest Division

Denver got rid of guard Allen Iverson in the beginning of the season and brought in a clutch champion in point guard Chauncey BIllups. Billups will help this young team grow and help the team compete while they decide whether they are retooling or rebuilding. Forward Carmelo Anthony will get his team back and will be expected to be a better leader. Anthony can score with anyone but needs to show more on defense to be the stars in the NBA his classmates LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are.

Forward Linas Kleiza should get plenty of time at the three spot and guard J.R. Smith will get a chance to start now that A.I. is gone. Smith is a good three-point shooter and an awesome finisher but needs to stay consistent. Head coach George Karl needs his team to commit to playing defense all the time to make the playoffs and Iverson leaving may help. The team traded center/forward Marcus Camby away for salary cap relief figuring it had center Nene and forward Kenyon Martin with huge contracts so they might as well play.

Martin will be helped by having a point guard who can get him the rock close to the basket and should remind people of his play with New Jersey when they made the NBA Finals in back to back seasons. guards Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter are solid backups and Atkins can score when needed. forward Dahntay Jones has impressed me to start the season and may see minutes at the three position.

Overall, this team needs more scoring at the center and power forward position to stay in the playoff hunt. In the West, this will be a tough task. I see them once again winning about 42-45 games and missing the playoffs.

Portland Trail Blazers

Portland finally gets to see their center of the future take the floor in Greg Oden formerly of Ohio State. Oden has the skills to pay the bills (especially on defense) but needs to work on his post moves and stay healthy. LaMarcus Aldridge is a power forward to be reckoned with and Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster can solidify the frontcourt with improving play at both ends. Ike Diago, Joel Pryzbilla and Channing Frye make a solid team of forwards off the bench and can start on some teams. Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez will do a decent job at the point guard position with Blake being the veteran who doesn't turn the ball over much and Rodriguez being the shot in the arm during the rough stretches.

Shooting guard Brandon Roy is the face of the team and will continue to be underrated because he's not a dunk in your face type of guy. Rookie guard Jarryd Bayless should be a great guy off the bench while he learns the ropes and Rudy Fernandez is being touted as the next Manu Ginobili. This team will learn the ropes this season and if they do exceptionally well expect them to make a trade for a veteran.

I see this team winning about 45 games and missing the playoffs but giving Portland fans alot of hope for the future.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The former Seattle franchise is now in Oklahoma City and called the Thunder not the Sonics. This team is bound for the lottery and needs to see who it's pieces are for the future. The team drafted Russell Westbrook from UCLA and he should get time at both guard positions. Kevin Durant dropped 20 points a game as a rookie but needs to add weight and some defense to his package. forward Jeff Green seems like he does everything well but nothing great and that makes for a great sidekick. Earl Watson will man the point for the young team and help new head coach Scott Brooks teach a bit about the league.

Brooks took over for P.J. Carlisimo in the beginning of the season and is on an interim basis. Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison are solid NBA players but I don't feel like either can drop 20 points consistently. Damien Wilkins and Joe Smith are solid veterans that will provide leadership until a good trade comes along sending them to contenders. Johan Petro and Robert Swift are two centers who have yet to show their potential as fact. They will get plenty of time on this team.

The Thunder will struggle to win 20 games and will be a lottery team. The West is too tough and they are too green. Can they also work on better jerseys?

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers made some wholesale changes to their team but now look pretty good for the now and the future. The team lost forward Corey Maggette (Golden State) and Elton Brand (Philadelphia) among others but recently acquired forward Zach Randolph from New York to join off-season additions center Marcus Camby and guard Baron Davis. The team made head coach Mike Dunleavy the general manager replacing long-time GM Elgin Baylor so he's trying to be aggressive. The addition of Randolph either puts long-time center Chris Kaman expendible or a him and Camby nice interchangable tandem at the center position. Second year forward Al Thornton seems to be an all-star and rookie guard Eric Gordon can play a role similar to Chicago's Ben Gordon. The team lost some three-point shooting with the trade for Randolph (they lost Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas) but the replaced the post player they lost when Brand left. Forward Ricky Davis is a more than capable scorer who should help off the bench but don't expect a defensive effort all the time.

This team can compete for a bottom seed in the playoffs on paper but only if they get their play together but that's something I don't think will happen easily. I see a Western Conference team having to win 50 games at least to make the playoffs.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers did make the NBA Finals last year and they got embarrassed when they met the Celtics. Now with a healthy center Andrew Bynum back at center the team will look to finish what it started and give guard Kobe Bryant his four title and first without Shaquille O'Neal. Kobe finally won the MVP last season but it wasn't because he scored 50 points 20 times in the season but because he made teammates better. Bryant will look to do the same and his more weapons to play with in better positions as well.

Now instead of Lamar Odom at the power forward spot he comes off the bench allowing Vladimir Radmanovic to start at the three position alongside forward Pau Gasol and Bynum to start at the same time. This will allow Odom to get more looks as a bench player. Trevor Ariza has done well at the 3/4 positions giving the team even more athleticism and hittting a three or two.

Forward Luke Walton is coming off injury but will be a nice addition to the bench. Guard Derek Fisher is still a decent starter who is the only player to win titles with Los Angeles with Kobe in the early 2000s and Jordan Farmer is doing well as a backup. Guard Sasha Vujacic is a good and aggressive defensive player who can shoot also and Chris Mihm is also back from injury and will help against the big men of the league.

This team was exposed in the finals as being soft so the team reportedly bulked up in the off-season and will look forward to the challenge the West proposes. I see the team winning 60 games and locking up the number one seed in the conference.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State lost it's best player to free agency in guard Baron Davis then lost it's second best player to stupidity in recently resigned guard Monta Ellis. The team brought in third year guard Marcus Williams to help at the point and added Corey Maggette from the Clips for scoring and rebounding help. Recently, Jamal Crawford came from New York in the Al Harrington deal and he should thrive in head coach Don Nelson's up and down system. Stephen Jackson is the leader of the team (yes, imagine that) and gives them a little of everything. Anthony Marrow has been the surprise of the early season and will look to stay in the rotation throughout the season.

Ronny Turiaf came over from the Lakers and he can be a starter or bench player who can block shots and finish in the paint strong. Branden Wright and Anthony Randolph are both 6-10 forwards who need to show that their game is more than skin and bones and Andres Biedrins is one of the best centers in the league (believe it) that no one talks about.

This team will win 40-45 games and miss the playoffs.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns have a full season of Shaq to look forward to and the aging center is proving that this will be a good thing so far this season. O'Neal and Amare Stoudamire should be a nice tandem but Stoudamire needs to play better defensively and post up when Shaq isn't in the game. Steve Nash is getting older but still is the team's best clutch shooter and leader. He gets people the ball where they can score and makes the tough shot when needed. That being said he doesn't need to be the only player stepping up. Grant Hill is still a very good player who can start or come off the bench providing a capable ball handler, slasher and leader on the court.

Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa need to define their roles on the team led by new head coach Terry Porter because they disappeared or looked lost under Mike D'Antoni. Diaw needs to be more aggressive at times and Barbosa less. Raja Bell is good for the occasional three-pointer and defense on the other teams' best player. He shouldn't have to do more than that. Matt Barnes will certainly be a nice addition as the season progresses because he can score and run in transition.

Robin Lopez will benefit from playing behind Shaq and will be starter quality in the future. Lopez (Brook from the New Jersey Nets' twin) was known for being a great defensive player and he should only improve offensively. Overall this team could surprise teams if Shaq and the rest of the team shows the toughness the team is not known for.

I see them once again winning 50 plus games and making the playoffs. The big question is can they win a round in the rough and tough Western Conference.

Sacramento Kings

Sacramento has a young star in Kevin Martin and John Salmons played well last season but can they score enough to win in the West? No! The team has a declining star in Brad Miller to go along with rookie forwards Donte Greene, Jason Thompson and second year center Spencer Hawes. This should be the core they try to win with after trading Ron Artest in the off-season. Quincy Douby and Francisco Garcia are looking good (for a bad team) off the bench but must stay healthy to be effective.

Shelden Williams will look to resurrect his career in his first full season in Sacramento and could give them some young size in the middle (he was called the "landlord" in college) but this team is destined to make the lottery, especially considering they play in the Western Conference.

Head coach Reggie Theus has his hands full with this young team and starting point Beno Udrih's championship experience can't save them from, at best, mediocrity. Mikki Moore and Bobby Jackson could probably be trade bait by mid-season. Both veterans could help a playoff team trying to make a push.

It looks bad, as in late 1980s bad in Sacramento for this season.

--

 


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Send any comments/questions to clayton@geoclan.com.

 

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